{"id":6176,"date":"2026-11-12T12:23:42","date_gmt":"2026-11-12T11:23:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/winsider.sk\/?p=6176"},"modified":"2026-11-12T12:23:42","modified_gmt":"2026-11-12T11:23:42","slug":"draftkings-a-polymarket-prepustaju-hoci-burza-dkex-uz-zaraba-takmer-ako-stavkova-kancelaria-kto-zaplati-vojnu-o-hracov","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/winsider.sk\/index.php\/2026\/11\/12\/draftkings-a-polymarket-prepustaju-hoci-burza-dkex-uz-zaraba-takmer-ako-stavkova-kancelaria-kto-zaplati-vojnu-o-hracov\/","title":{"rendered":"DraftKings a Polymarket prep\u00fa\u0161\u0165aj\u00fa, hoci burza DKeX u\u017e zar\u00e1ba takmer ako st\u00e1vkov\u00e1 kancel\u00e1ria. Kto zaplat\u00ed vojnu o hr\u00e1\u010dov?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Americk\u00fd st\u00e1vkov\u00fd gigant DraftKings a predik\u010dn\u00e1 platforma Polymarket v posledn\u00fdch t\u00fd\u017ed\u0148och pod\u013ea port\u00e1lu Casino.org prepustili \u010das\u0165 zamestnancov. Pre DraftKings je to u\u017e tretie kolo prep\u00fa\u0161\u0165ania tento rok a \u0161tvrt\u00e9 od roku 2023. Polymarket redukciu stavu pod\u013ea v\u0161etk\u00e9ho potvrdil, nie v\u0161ak v rozsahu 30 percent, o ktorom predt\u00fdm \u0161pekulovali niektor\u00e9 senza\u010dn\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy. Paradoxn\u00e9 je na\u010dasovanie. DraftKings \u0161etr\u00ed na \u013eu\u010foch pr\u00e1ve vtedy, ke\u010f jeho vlastn\u00e1 burza predik\u010dn\u00fdch trhov DKeX premie\u0148a peniaze z\u00e1kazn\u00edkov na tr\u017eby takmer s rovnakou \u00fa\u010dinnos\u0165ou ako klasick\u00e1 st\u00e1vkov\u00e1 kancel\u00e1ria.<\/p>\n

Obe firmy sa stretli na tom istom ihrisku a s\u00faboj o z\u00e1kazn\u00edka je drah\u00fd. Predik\u010dn\u00e9 trhy, kde si \u013eudia namiesto st\u00e1vok kupuj\u00fa kontrakty na v\u00fdsledok udalosti, sa z okrajovej kryptomenovej kuriozity stali priamym konkurentom americk\u00fdch st\u00e1vkov\u00fdch kancel\u00e1ri\u00ed. DraftKings na tento posun reaguje mas\u00edvnou invest\u00edciou. Na rok 2026 vy\u010dlenil na div\u00edziu DraftKings Predictions 650 a\u017e 700 mili\u00f3nov dol\u00e1rov upravenej EBITDA, teda prev\u00e1dzkov\u00e9ho zisku pred \u00farokmi, da\u0148ami a odpismi, a na rok 2027 \u010fal\u0161\u00edch 250 a\u017e 350 mili\u00f3nov. Dohromady je to a\u017e 1,05 miliardy dol\u00e1rov. Prep\u00fa\u0161\u0165anie tak nevyzer\u00e1 ako znak kr\u00edzy. Sk\u00f4r ukazuje, \u017ee na nov\u00fd front treba niekde n\u00e1js\u0165 peniaze.<\/p>\n

DraftKings m\u00f4\u017ee predik\u010dn\u00e9 kontrakty pon\u00faka\u0165 aj v \u0161t\u00e1toch, kde leg\u00e1lne online st\u00e1vkovanie na \u0161port nie je dostupn\u00e9. Pr\u00e1ve to je pre neho hlavn\u00fd argument. Predik\u010dn\u00e9 kontrakty mu otv\u00e1raj\u00fa trhy, na ktor\u00e9 by sa inak musel dost\u00e1va\u0165 pomalou legaliz\u00e1ciou \u0161t\u00e1t po \u0161t\u00e1te. Burzu DKeX spustil pribli\u017ene pred polrokom ako vlastn\u00fa intern\u00fa platformu a pod\u013ea gener\u00e1lneho riadite\u013ea a spoluzakladate\u013ea Jasona Robinsa sa medzi burzami predik\u010dn\u00fdch trhov r\u00fdchlo dostala na tretie miesto.<\/p>\n

\"\u010cist\u00e1<\/figure>\n

Polymarket prich\u00e1dza z opa\u010dnej strany. Platforma Shayna Coplana vyr\u00e1stla na kryptomen\u00e1ch a v auguste pod\u013ea dostupn\u00fdch spr\u00e1v z\u00edskala miliardu dol\u00e1rov pri ocenen\u00ed 21 mili\u00e1rd. Medzi jej investorov patr\u00ed Donald Trump Jr. aj burzov\u00e1 skupina Intercontinental Exchange. Okt\u00f3ber bol pre Polymarket rekordn\u00fdm mesiacom, k \u010domu v\u00fdrazne prispela ned\u00e1vno spusten\u00e1 americk\u00e1 div\u00edzia Polymarket US. Firma z\u00e1rove\u0148 \u010del\u00ed kritike pre \u00fadajne neprofesion\u00e1lne vystupovanie a mana\u017e\u00e9rske pre\u0161\u013eapy. Trh preto \u0161pekuluje, \u017ee prep\u00fa\u0161\u0165anie m\u00e1 firmu zo\u0161t\u00edhli\u0165 pred mo\u017en\u00fdm vstupom na burzu v roku 2027. Polymarket to ofici\u00e1lne nepotvrdil, jeho najbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed rival v\u0161ak u\u017e priznal, \u017ee by o takom kroku po tomto roku mohol uva\u017eova\u0165. O zmene smeru m\u00f4\u017ee sved\u010di\u0165 aj frustr\u00e1cia \u010dasti prv\u00fdch pou\u017e\u00edvate\u013eov, ktor\u00ed dlho \u010dakali na vlastn\u00fd token rozd\u00e1van\u00fd prv\u00fdm pou\u017e\u00edvate\u013eom, ve\u013ek\u00fdm obchodn\u00edkom a tvorcom a dnes v neho prest\u00e1vaj\u00fa veri\u0165.<\/p>\n

Burza u\u017e zar\u00e1ba skoro ako st\u00e1vkov\u00e1 kancel\u00e1ria<\/h2>\n

Najzauj\u00edmavej\u0161ie \u010d\u00edsla priniesol analytik firmy Eilers & Krejcik Gaming Brad Allen. DKeX pod\u013ea neho v okt\u00f3bri dosiahol anualizovan\u00fd celkov\u00fd objem obchodov 56,8 miliardy dol\u00e1rov. Anualizovan\u00fd znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ide o okt\u00f3brov\u00fa aktivitu vyn\u00e1soben\u00fa dvan\u00e1stimi, nie o skuto\u010dn\u00fd ro\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdsledok. V\u00e4\u010d\u0161inu, 46,7 miliardy, v\u0161ak tvoril objem tvorcov trhu, teda subjektov, ktor\u00e9 neust\u00e1le pon\u00fakaj\u00fa n\u00e1kupn\u00e9 a predajn\u00e9 ceny a zabezpe\u010duj\u00fa likviditu. Samotn\u00ed z\u00e1kazn\u00edci zobchodovali 10,1 miliardy, \u010do je ekvivalent objemu st\u00e1vok v st\u00e1vkovej kancel\u00e1rii. Medzi tituln\u00fdm \u010d\u00edslom a skuto\u010dnou aktivitou hr\u00e1\u010dov je tak 5,6-n\u00e1sobn\u00fd rozdiel.<\/p>\n

Z tohto z\u00e1kazn\u00edckeho objemu DraftKings na poplatkoch a tvorbe trhu premen\u00ed 7,3 percenta na hrub\u00e9 tr\u017eby a po odr\u00e1tan\u00ed promo akci\u00ed 6 percent na \u010dist\u00e9 tr\u017eby. Cel\u00e1 \u0161portov\u00e1 div\u00edzia firmy pritom v prvom polroku 2026 dosiahla \u010dist\u00fa mar\u017eu 7,3 percenta a za prv\u00fdch dev\u00e4\u0165 mesiacov roka 6,7 percenta. Pod\u013ea Allena tak predik\u010dn\u00e9 trhy m\u00f4\u017eu prin\u00e1\u0161a\u0165 na dol\u00e1r z\u00e1kazn\u00edckej aktivity tr\u017eby, ktor\u00e9 nie s\u00fa \u010faleko od tradi\u010dnej st\u00e1vkovej kancel\u00e1rie. Firma vo svojej prezent\u00e1cii uv\u00e1dza, \u017ee v septembri a okt\u00f3bri dosiahol DKeX hrub\u00fa mieru v\u00fdnosu 11,1 percenta zo z\u00e1kazn\u00edckeho objemu a DraftKings si z nej cez poplatky burzy, sprostredkovanie a tvorbu trhu ponechal 65,6 percenta.<\/p>\n

Akcion\u00e1ri sa v\u0161ak zatia\u013e neraduj\u00fa. Ke\u010f DraftKings 5. novembra ozn\u00e1mil v\u00fdsledky za tret\u00ed \u0161tvr\u0165rok, akcie po spr\u00e1ve o v\u00fd\u0161ke invest\u00edcie do predik\u010dn\u00fdch trhov oslabili a straty odvtedy len \u010diasto\u010dne vymazali. Hlavn\u00fd biznis pritom funguje. \u010cist\u00e9 tr\u017eby v tre\u0165om \u0161tvr\u0165roku medziro\u010dne vzr\u00e1stli o 36 percent pri raste objemu st\u00e1vok o 12 percent. Firma napriek tomu vyk\u00e1zala upraven\u00fa stratu EBITDA pribli\u017ene 317 mili\u00f3nov dol\u00e1rov, viac ako dvojn\u00e1sobok minuloro\u010dn\u00fdch 126 mili\u00f3nov. Jadro firmy m\u00e1 v roku 2026 vyprodukova\u0165 875 a\u017e 925 mili\u00f3nov dol\u00e1rov upravenej EBITDA, no po odpo\u010d\u00edtan\u00ed invest\u00edcie do predik\u010dn\u00fdch trhov zostane v konsolidovan\u00fdch \u010d\u00edslach len 175 a\u017e 275 mili\u00f3nov.<\/p>\n

Skeptick\u00fd poh\u013ead pon\u00faka Ivan Soloviov, b\u00fdval\u00fd finan\u010dn\u00fd riadite\u013e eur\u00f3pskej n\u00e1rodnej lot\u00e9riovej spolo\u010dnosti. Pre magaz\u00edn Gambling Insider upozornil, \u017ee tohtoro\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00fddavky s\u00fa v skuto\u010dnosti n\u00e1kupom z\u00e1kazn\u00edkov. Tr\u017eby z predik\u010dn\u00fdch trhov bud\u00fa tento rok pod\u013ea samotnej firmy nev\u00fdznamn\u00e9, preto\u017ee promo akcie pre nov\u00fdch klientov zjedia v\u00e4\u010d\u0161inu hrub\u00fdch tr\u017eieb. Skuto\u010dn\u00fd test pod\u013ea neho pr\u00edde v prvom polroku 2027, ke\u010f uv\u00edtacie bonusy skon\u010dia a uk\u00e1\u017ee sa \u010dist\u00e1 tr\u017eba na akt\u00edvneho z\u00e1kazn\u00edka. DraftKings tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee nov\u00ed klienti sa dr\u017eia podobne ako t\u00ed v st\u00e1vkovej kancel\u00e1rii, no dostatok d\u00e1t z obdobia po skon\u010den\u00ed promo akci\u00ed zatia\u013e nezverejnil. Soloviova tr\u00e1pi aj kanibaliz\u00e1cia. Ak si st\u00e1ly z\u00e1kazn\u00edk st\u00e1vkovej kancel\u00e1rie za\u010dne kupova\u0165 \u0161portov\u00e9 kontrakty namiesto st\u00e1vok, burza vyk\u00e1\u017ee rast, ale firma ako celok nezarob\u00ed viac. \u201eRiziko pre st\u00e1vkov\u00fa kancel\u00e1riu nie s\u00fa tak peniaze ako prekr\u00fdvanie z\u00e1kazn\u00edkov,\u201c zhrnul Soloviov. Firma tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee prekryv je mal\u00fd, ko\u013eko obchodn\u00edkov u\u017e bolo jej klientmi, v\u0161ak nezverejnila.<\/p>\n

Cel\u00fd model navy\u0161e vis\u00ed na regul\u00e1cii. DraftKings po\u010d\u00edta s t\u00fdm, \u017ee sa mu n\u00e1klady na z\u00edskanie tohtoro\u010dn\u00fdch z\u00e1kazn\u00edkov vr\u00e1tia pribli\u017ene za 20 mesiacov a pri z\u00e1kazn\u00edkoch z\u00edskan\u00fdch v roku 2027 za 18 mesiacov. V scen\u00e1ri, v ktorom by \u0161portov\u00e9 kontrakty skon\u010dili v j\u00fali 2028, sa n\u00e1vratnos\u0165 pre ro\u010dn\u00edk 2027 pred\u013a\u017ei na 41 mesiacov. Jasno m\u00f4\u017ee prinies\u0165 Najvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed s\u00fad USA, ktor\u00fd m\u00f4\u017ee rozhodn\u00fa\u0165 o osude \u0161portov\u00fdch kontraktov. Najhor\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdsledok by v\u0161ak viac zasiahol \u010dist\u00e9 predik\u010dn\u00e9 platformy ako Polymarket ne\u017e DraftKings, ktor\u00fd m\u00e1 zabehnut\u00fa st\u00e1vkov\u00fa kancel\u00e1riu a vo v\u00fdsledkovej spr\u00e1ve zd\u00f4raz\u0148oval ne\u0161portov\u00e9 kontrakty aj kr\u00ed\u017eov\u00fd predaj medzi produktmi.<\/p>\n

Tu je aj vysvetlenie prep\u00fa\u0161\u0165ania. Obe firmy musia investorom uk\u00e1za\u0165 discipl\u00ednu, ka\u017ed\u00e1 z in\u00e9ho d\u00f4vodu. DraftKings potrebuje presved\u010di\u0165 akcion\u00e1rov, \u017ee miliardov\u00e1 st\u00e1vka na predik\u010dn\u00e9 trhy nepohlt\u00ed zisky z jadra. Polymarket sa pri pr\u00edpadnom vstupe na burzu bude musie\u0165 predstavi\u0165 ako dospel\u00e1 finan\u010dn\u00e1 firma, nie ako kryptomenov\u00fd startup. Ak by sa navy\u0161e zv\u00fd\u0161il pr\u00e1vny tlak na z\u00e1kaz alebo obmedzenie \u0161portov\u00fdch kontraktov, verejn\u00e1 emisia akci\u00ed by mohla by\u0165 pre in\u0161titucion\u00e1lnych investorov preferovanou cestou, ako svoj podiel spe\u0148a\u017ei\u0165.<\/p>\n

\u010eal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj ur\u010d\u00ed nieko\u013eko term\u00ednov. DraftKings na rok 2027 pl\u00e1nuje tr\u017eby z predik\u010dn\u00fdch trhov 650 a\u017e 750 mili\u00f3nov dol\u00e1rov pri invest\u00edcii 250 a\u017e 350 mili\u00f3nov a konsolidovan\u00fa upraven\u00fa EBITDA 800 mili\u00f3nov a\u017e miliardu dol\u00e1rov. Soloviov tento v\u00fdh\u013ead pova\u017euje za d\u00f4veryhodn\u00fd iba vtedy, ak aktivita z\u00e1kazn\u00edkov po skon\u010den\u00ed bonusov neklesne. Sledova\u0165 treba aj rozhodnutie Najvy\u0161\u0161ieho s\u00fadu a to, \u010di po novembrov\u00fdch vo\u013eb\u00e1ch do Kongresu bud\u00fa \u0161t\u00e1ty ako Georgia \u010di Texas ochotnej\u0161ie legalizova\u0165 klasick\u00e9 st\u00e1vky, \u010do by zmenilo cel\u00fa logiku obch\u00e1dzania \u0161t\u00e1tnej regul\u00e1cie. Americk\u00fd s\u00faboj tak uk\u00e1\u017ee, \u010di ide o nov\u00fd druh finan\u010dn\u00e9ho trhu, alebo len o st\u00e1vkovanie v inom obale.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Predik\u010dn\u00e1 burza DraftKings premie\u0148a na \u010dist\u00e9 tr\u017eby 6 percent objemu z\u00e1kazn\u00edkov, takmer to\u013eko ako jeho klasick\u00e1 st\u00e1vkov\u00e1 kancel\u00e1ria. Firma aj Polymarket napriek tomu prep\u00fa\u0161\u0165aj\u00fa, lebo boj o hr\u00e1\u010dov je drah\u00fd.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":6175,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[153,82,80,268,135,81],"class_list":["post-6176","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-biznis","tag-draftkings","tag-polymarket","tag-predikcne-trhy","tag-prepustanie","tag-stavkove-kancelarie","tag-usa"],"yoast_head":"\nDraftKings a Polymarket prep\u00fa\u0161\u0165aj\u00fa, hoci burza DKeX u\u017e zar\u00e1ba takmer ako st\u00e1vkov\u00e1 kancel\u00e1ria. 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